The Art of Making Predictions for Haiti

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Michel Nau_

The Art of Making Predictions for Haiti

Post by Michel Nau_ » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:51 pm

HaitiPress Network posted September 15, 2005 [quote]Selon les dernières informations, les partis Fanmi Lavalas de l'ancien président Aristide et le Mouvement pour l'Instauration de la Démocratie en Haiti (MIDH) de Marc Bazin se sont mis d'accord pour former une alliance baptisée Union Pour Haiti (UPH). [/quote]
This is what I predicted March 20, 2005 , seven month earlier :
[quote]Haiti is now in a crossroad. Too many political parties, they need to practice fusionism, and have an obligation to decide what is best for Haiti. The best presidential ticket so far could be more likely a Marc Bazin & Leslie Voltaire ticket. Because, Marc Bazin is a veteran in Haitian politics, and a first runner up after Aristide in previous elections, and Leslie Voltaire a long time Lavalas member (moderate) with experience in local, Diaspora, and international community. [/quote]
Michel

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What's my line?

Post by admin » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:51 pm

Michel, who predicted that exactly? Was it you, a U.S. Ambassador, or a foreign expert off the record?

Because, here on Ann Pale, http://www.haitiforever.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2631 , March 21, 2005 (one day later than the date you have assigned to your prediction), this is exactly what you wrote, word for word:

[quote]
This issue was discussed in part during Haiti Democracy Project findings and recommendations presentation last week at the Brookings Institute in Washington, DC.

The panel composed of two former U.S. ambassadors to Haiti Tim Carney, and Ernest H. Preeg encouraged and urged MI
NUSTAH to pursue its mandate more aggressively, particularly in support of the Haitian police in the line of fire.

(snip)

Preeg also criticized Brazilian-led U.N. peacekeepers for limiting their operations to urban areas.

(snip)

A foreign expert who wants to stay off the record said that Canada, USA, and the European community want to make sure that their billion of dollars investments in Haiti would bear fruits, and they don't believe that the MINUSTAH is up to the job.

“We can't trust these soccer players, rice and bean guacamole eaters, bosa nova, salsa dancers third world soldiers with our investment” he said.

(snip)

Before we ended our candid conversation, I asked him about the coming elections, he replied that Haiti is now in a crossroad. The political parties have an obligation to decide what is b
est for Haiti. The best presidential ticket so far is a Marc Bazin & Leslie Voltaire ticket.

I asked him why?

Because, Marc Bazin is a veteran in Haitian politics, and a first runner up after Aristide in previous elections, and Leslie Voltaire a long time Lavalas member (moderate) with experience in local, Diaspora, and international community.
[/quote]

So the prediction is there, though the quote you cited is not exact (the word "fusionism" was never written previously on the forum, something that immediately caught my attention); the date cited is one day off; but more importantly, it appears that you attributed that prediction previously to a foreign worker who wished to stay off the record, or was it one of the former two U.S. ambassadors to Haiti (one of which, Tim Carney, is back in Port-au-Prince to manage the Haiti s
ituation during this electoral period).

Will the real Michel Nau please stand up?

Leonel JB

Post by Leonel JB » Sun Sep 18, 2005 10:14 am

I always thought this would be a good one!

If I'm not mistaken, I've mentioned it in February. If not here, somewhere else.

Bazin is a great Politician. He played his cards right since the begining of Lavalas.

Perhaps, I made that prediction before MN.

Ann swiv...

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Post by admin » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:03 pm

Michel, you completely missed the point. Is this deliberate? What you have just written, is it an attempt to blow smoke in our eyes?

Here's the point I made. Please read it carefully:

With respect to the eventuality of a Marc Bazin & Leslie Voltaire ticket, you first attributed the prediction to "A foreign expert who wants to stay off the record" (http://www.haitiforever.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2631). Now, six months later, you have brazenly claimed the prediction for yourself, by prefacing it with:
[quote]This is what I predicted March 20, 2005 , seven month earlier[/quote]

Never mind that you have not provided an exact quote (you changed some of the words and introduced a new one, "fusionism"), you have not provided an exact date (you posted it on the forum on March 21, not March 20) nor an exact lapse of time (you posted it six months ago, not "se
ven month earlier"). Never mind all those baffling inexactitudes. The central point is that: first you attributed a quote to an anonymous foreign observer, and now you have claimed it as your very own.

Unless you, Michel, were that anonymous foreign observer who wished to stay off the record, and you were talking to yourself, it follows that...

I don't need to say it.

I wish you could have come up with a more imaginative explanation or simply with the truth.

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Post by admin » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:50 pm

Bon, Michel, mwen pa kwè ou kapab vini ak yon esplikasyon kredib pou esplike kokennchenn kontradiksyon ki chita nan zafè prediksyon w lan. Si ou te kapab, ou ta fè sa deja. Men ou vin soulve yon lòt gwo enkyetid ankò nan repons ou bay anlè a:

[quote]E avantaj ke mesiye milite sa yo genyen se ke yo [kominote internasyonal la] bezwen sevis mesiye sa yo pou zafe sekirite intenasyonal nan zone nan kont drug trafiking e terotist (Al Quaida Inc.). [/quote]
Souple, Michel, mwen konnen se Washington DC wap viv e ou se nèg ki renmen fwote ak gwo potanta Washington yo. Mwen konnen tou ke Saltenbank sa yo pa janm ezite anplwaye mo "teworis" ak "Al Quaida" pou yo jistifye lage bonm, fèmen "website" ak ògan laprès, toupizi malere, elatriye. Tout pi gwo krim LETA komèt sou latè nan jounen jodiya, yo fè l sou pretèks ke se "teworis" yap konbat. Si se pou fèmen "Windows on Haiti", mwen deja konnen yo kab fè sa
. Se yon ti foumi mwen ye douvan Homeland Security. Men, souple, pa vin repete vye koze sa yo sou do pèp ayisyen an. Meriken te mèt di li, men oumenm kòm pitit peyi pa fèt pou rantre san jèn nan vye manti sa yo. Genyen trafik dròg nan peyi a, se vre [a savwa ki moun kap kontwole li tout bon vre]. Men zafè "teworis" ak "Al Quaida" a, souple, pèp ayisyen pa bezwen malè sa pandye sou tèt li. Kidonk se pa tout betiz ki soti nan djòl Ashcroft, Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, ak Bush pou nou repete.

Tou manti pa fon, Michel. Yon jou, tout moun sou latè va wè gwosè malatchong gouvènman Bush la envante pou l chache jistifye tout krim li te gen entansyon komèt deja sou latè.

Nou pa bezwen repete e anplifye manti sa yo, kòm si pa te gen anyen nan sa.

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